Oakville, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXUS63 KLSX 250903
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
403 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best chance (50-70%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
early this morning, but there will be a lingering chance (20-40%)
into this afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures are expected tonight and on Saturday followed
by a big warm-up into early next week with near record temperatures
possible on Monday.

- An active pattern for showers and thunderstorms are expected next
week including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday
night and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

The latest morning mosaic is showing showers and scattered
thunderstorms over eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois.  This is
associated with low level moisture convergence ahead of a 850mb low
that will move east of the area by mid morning.  While I do expect
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms (50-70%) will move
east with it, there will continue to be a chance (20-40%) through
the day across the CWA ahead of a mid level trough currently seen on
water vapor over the Central Plains.  The latest runs of the CAMS
including the HRRR doesn`t show precipitation exiting the CWA until
early this evening.  Dry weather is then expected from late this
evening through Saturday as the HREF is showing an upper ridge
building from the Plains.

The front currently along the Missouri/Iowa border will move south
across the area today.  With the warm start, temperatures are still
expected to climb well into the 70s to near 80 degrees ahead of the
front.   Cold air advection will kick in tonight causing lows to
fall into 50s and with highs on Saturday only in the 60s.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

After a dry Saturday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
return on Saturday night into Sunday as a weak mid level wave will
bring a chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
The focus will then turn toward next week when there is reasonable
agreement in the model guidance that an upper trough will move
across Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes early next week. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area Monday
night into Tuesday as the attendant cold front begins to slowly move
southeast across the area under southwesterly flow aloft.  There
remains some potential for strong to severe storms over the area on
Tuesday as the LREF joint probabilities for SBCAPE>500J/kg & 0-500mb
Shear >30kts is as high 80% at 18Z with the SPC severe outlook of
15%.  The chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue over
the area mid-late next week as the LREF is showing a quasi-zonal
pattern over the Midwest with 30-60% of it`s members producing
precipitation Tuesday night into Thursday night with the best chance
over the southern CWA.

Monday still looks like the warmest day with the potential to warm
well into the 80s, though current forecast of southerly winds and
partly cloudy skies may temper highs a bit.  Temperatures will start
falling off on Tuesday and will be in the 70s the rest of the week
behind the front with the clouds and chance of rain.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Scattered thunderstorms may impact central Missouri sites and/or
KUIN late this evening/early overnight ahead of an approaching
cold front. This front will move through the area on Friday, with
metro terminals having the best chance of seeing scattered storms
early Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms should be pretty weak, but
brief reductions in visibilities are the main threat with any
downpours. Behind the front, dry weather with a wind shift to the
northwest is forecast. There also may be some MVFR ceilings at
KCOU/KJEF/KUIN behind the front, but the signal is mixed so just
added a SCT025 group for now.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Monday, nearing
daily records for late April. Here are the daily record highs
for April 28.

LOCATION        RECORD
ST LOUIS    92 set in 1970
COLUMBIA    88 set in 1970
QUINCY      88 set in 1970


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX